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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian

April Chill!

From near record breaking warmth to near record breaking cold? That's how you "Arkansas". Remember last winter, I kept looking towards Alaska for a ridge to dislodge the cold air and send it south? Well, it's finally happening. Wayyyy too late for winter weather lovers though. It does mean below average temperatures for much of the central and eastern United States through mid April.

I have concern the severe wether chances will really ramp up as the warmth fights that cold once it's in place. The 2nd half of the month could become very active. Also, Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures are well above average. This will help deliver deep moisture ahead of any system. That, along with the collision of this upcoming cold and the fighting spring warmth, could really mean trouble.

However, for now, let's focus on the chilly air (relative to average) heading into the state. I would not plant anything sensitive to frost and/or freezes. If you have, be ready to cover them up. Our low temperatures next week will be highly dependent upon cloud cover and wind. Those 2 elements would hold those lows up some, but if it's clear and winds go calm, LOOK OUT! Regardless, it will be chilly. Below is a map of average last frost/freeze for 50 locations across the state.

The European from Look at the lows next week for central Arkansas. Northern Arkansas likely colder.

The GFS from It's singing the same tune next week.

NOAA 6-10 day outlook has a very good chance for well below average temperatures. Notice Alaska warmer relative to average. That's the ridge going up there.

April 15-21, a very good chance for below average temperatures. Once the warmth fights back, I'm worried severe storms will ramp up.

Click a location for all the frost freeze info plus much more.