Another Weekend Storm
It's not rain and snow we'll be watching next weekend. It will be thunderstorms.
I want to get ahead of this because there are already posts all over social media about gloom and doom. Considering we'll be in the warm sector (unstable) of the storm and it's March, we must watch it. However, there are many factors which must be resolved. This could end up being rain with a few non severe thunderstorms or it could end up being stronger.
As of this Monday, the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined an area anywhere in the United States.
Here's a portion of their morning discussion:
"the ECMWF advances this feature as a much weaker open wave, and as a result, similar/significant differences exist between the two models with respect to strength/development of the associated surface low. By late afternoon Day 6, the GFS depicts a surface cyclone in the vicinity of the mid-Missouri Valley that is 10 to 12 mb deeper than the ECMWF's low. Though severe risk would appear to be on the increase by the upcoming weekend as this western troughing reaches the central U.S., no risk areas will be highlighted at this time, given the substantial differences in model solutions. "
Of all the variables which stand out to me is the timing of the system. Both models have this coming through in the morning and that's not prime time for severe weather in Arkansas. That does not eliminate the threat, however, it does limit the potential. It's just something to watch at this time and we'll do that for you here and on KATV Channel 7.