Another Snow

It's looking more and more likely a strong area of low pressure aloft will affect the state. It's cut off from the main flow which will make this forecast very challenging. Small deviations in the track can have a tremendous impact on our weather. Since it's only Monday and this will affect the state at some point late Wednesday into Thursday, we still have time to pin down the details.

These potent cut off lows will throw curveballs in your forecast. I learned that many years ago and I have seen many since. I vowed not to be caught off guard again. So here we are with another one and the forecasting fun and games begin.

Once again, it comes down to track and intensity. These powerful lows can produce quite a bit of dynamic cooling with quick hitting thumps of big snows. Underneath the zone of heavy snow, surface temperature cool quickly and drop below freezing. At this time, it appears the most favored area will be northeastern Arkansas into Missouri and Kentucky. It's still possible to see flakes fly further west and south.

The NAM at midnight Thursday has the cut off low centered over central Arkansas. It's just north and west of the track which has the greatest potential for precip. This placement and track will change

The Euro from F5weather shows light amounts, but really increases them drastically far northern Arkansas into Missouri. At this time, this is the most likely scenario.

The NAM is similar with lighter amounts northern Arkansas, then increasing further north.

The GFS light amounts on this map across NW Arkansas is from Monday. The Wed/Thur snow potential is right up the MS River.

The CMC is similar to other models with lighter amounts north, then increasing into MO and IL.

On a side note, I was hoping to make my own snow Wednesday morning since the winds would die out, skies would clear, and it would stay well below 29° for several hours. However, I may have to postpone it until a later time. The upper level low will produce some cloud cover and that could hold temperatures up towards 29 or 30°. I'll make a final call Tuesday. If I have to reschedule, I'll let you know when.