A Lamb With A Big Coat or a Lion?

March in Arkansas can get wild! Some of our most extreme weather happens this time of year.

This might be pie in the sky, but I'm hoping we can do the exact opposite of what happened to start February. Remember, the 1st week (7 days) was the warmest in Little Rock weather history by average high temperatures. Can we have the coldest opening to March in history? That might be a dream for a weather geek like me, but it will be fun to watch. However, modeling this year has been TERRIBLE. I know you're sick and tired of me saying this and I'm not trying to make excuses. I will use this blog to show you what's down the road, but I have serious doubts about serious cold. If the trend is our friend (snow/cold), I'll let you know.

The GFS is very mild into the first day of March, then the bottom falls out. The Euro is very similar. The models have done this several times this winter. It sees the cold air, but the magnitude of it is exaggerated.

The GFS midnight March 2nd (Saturday). The front is working through the state at this point. See the tightly spaced black lines over OK, KS and MS? That's a strong pressure gradient behind the front and very windy conditions in the arctic air mass. Rain will be possible during the transitions. Thunderstorms will be possible too, but too far out to get specific.

The Little Rock Marathon is next Sunday and it will be cold. What about precipitation? Once again, I go back to what the models have done all winter. Yes, it does show a chance for wintry weather. However, time and time again, it's wrong in the long range. Once we get closer to the time period in question, it's either rain and 33° or dry.

Will this be the time it's right? Stay tuned!