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  • Todd Yakoubian

Why?

I'm not kidding. That was the only question on a philosophy exam I had in college. My response was "why not" and I got an "A"


So now I will attempt to answer the question, why won't the Euro bring the cold air south next week? Because of what I'm about to show you, I'm not confident on the cold. While it won't be warm, the extreme cold talked elsewhere isn't a sure thing. Don't misunderstand me, it's still possible. It's the Euro against the rest of the world, but you know how much I like it compared to the others for Arkansas forecasting.


Left is the GFS and the right is the Euro. The GFS is still all in on cold air making it through Arkansas. Look at the area circled. The Euro has much more energy pulled back to the west over British Columbia which slows the big piece of the polar vortex holding it further north. The GFS left does NOT have that. It's possible the Euro is partially wrong on the strength of this. It could be up to its known bias of feeding back too much energy into the mountains and pulling the trough back. The GFS does not do this and shoves the colder air south. Hope it makes sense

The difference is clearly seen on the models ensembles.


Near surface temperature anomalies late in the week with the GFS left and the Euro right. See the cold air is MUCH further south on the GEFS and the Euro stops it just north of Arkansas as it holds more over Canada into British Columbia.

In summary...


The coming cold is NOT a done deal. While it will be chilly, it may not be extreme here in Arkansas. On the other hand, if the GFS is correct, it will get very cold. Remember, the Euro is the only model I can find showing this and therefore, it's a low confidence forecast. This can all flip flop either way so stay with KATV Channel 7.


One other theory. IF the Euro is correct and pulls that energy west, as a friend of mine puts it, that's "money in the bank". That has to go somewhere. If it digs south into the southwest U.S and ejects out with all that arctic air in place north of Arkansas, you could be looking at a significant storm in the longer range. However, given what has happened with the flip flopping in the modeling, I won't go there yet.


Again, one of these is right and one of these is wrong. Cold is still possible, but you can't ignore what the Euro is saying.