• Todd Yakoubian

33° and Rain

Say it ain't so! There's a better chance for 33° and rain than wintry weather in central Arkansas, unless you believe the GFS.


The Euro is developing a significant wave along the arctic boundary with a temperature forecasting nightmare over the metro Sunday morning. Look at the past 2 runs of the Euro around 6AM Sunday morning



OOZ run has 63° in Little Rock with a low on the front holding the cold air at bay for a few hours.

The next run is much colder due to the boundary being further south.

HUGE difference between the two runs! A difference like this several days away is normal for a global model like the GFS and Euro.



The Euro, like the GFS, has the greatest chance for frozen precip north and rain elsewhere.


The furthest extent of the wintry weather on the Euro is still north of central Arkansas by late morning, but it is turning sharply colder. Due to the north position of the low, we get a dry slot right after this time period. Again, according to this model

The GFS has been more consistent with a weaker wave tracking south along the front. Therefore, it's colder. No matter which model you look at, the highest chance for any winter weather will be northern Arkansas.



6AM, the GFS is colder, but it's still only rain for most with a wintry mix north.


Summary...


The Euro is waffling and I don't like that. I'm reminded it's a global model and for it to be off 50 or so miles in this time period is not unusual. The GFS is more steady with its solutions so far. At this time, I think the best forecast is for a wintry mix north and rain elsewhere. The change over to winter weather further south is less than a 50/50 chance in my opinion


We won't have a better handle on it until we get closer to Sunday and the hi res models help shed more light on the situation.



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