33° and Rain
Say it ain't so! There's a better chance for 33° and rain than wintry weather in central Arkansas, unless you believe the GFS.
The Euro is developing a significant wave along the arctic boundary with a temperature forecasting nightmare over the metro Sunday morning. Look at the past 2 runs of the Euro around 6AM Sunday morning
HUGE difference between the two runs! A difference like this several days away is normal for a global model like the GFS and Euro.
The GFS has been more consistent with a weaker wave tracking south along the front. Therefore, it's colder. No matter which model you look at, the highest chance for any winter weather will be northern Arkansas.
The Euro is waffling and I don't like that. I'm reminded it's a global model and for it to be off 50 or so miles in this time period is not unusual. The GFS is more steady with its solutions so far. At this time, I think the best forecast is for a wintry mix north and rain elsewhere. The change over to winter weather further south is less than a 50/50 chance in my opinion
We won't have a better handle on it until we get closer to Sunday and the hi res models help shed more light on the situation.