2020 Tornadoes

The southeastern United States has been hit hard so far this year with several rounds of severe weather and tornadoes.

It's very typical for the severe weather season to ramp up across the far southeast early in the year. In time, it shifts northward as spring warmth surges north and the cold air retreats with the jet stream. That has not really been the case so far this spring. Texas to North Carolina has been the favored location for the worst weather so far. The question now becomes, will the storm track slowly work northward putting Arkansas in an active period of severe weather and tornadoes or will it retreat northward quickly?

FYI, the low number in Oklahoma isn't all that unusual. They can have several dozen tornadoes in May and June.

Precipitation totals over the past 2 months depict well the storm track. Look at the excessive amounts of rain from Texas through Arkansas into Georgia.

Now, let's look at the ensemble guidance for the next 2 weeks. First is the European from WeatherBell.com

It indicates more of the same with 16 day positive precipitation anomalies, but some drying noted from Texas into southern Arkansas. MAYBE a little more northward with the storm track.

The GFS ensemble looks pretty close to the Euro with more of the same through the beginning of May.