Let's watch the last week of this month. The ridge is going up into Alaska and that will should send it south.
At the same time, the southeast ridge will bring resistance to the cold. That means an active storm track likely right over our region. I'm not saying snow/ice is guaranteed, but the Alaskan ridge development is screaming, WINTER IS NOT OVER!
Birdseye view of the northern hemisphere February 24th. There's the ridge going up over Alaska. That will push cold air south and east. See the yellows and oranges over the southeast? That cold air will meet resistance with a strong temperature gradient likely with an active storm track. Impossible to know at this time where exactly this sets up.
5 day precipitation anomalies ending Friday, February 24th. The greens indicate above average precipitation. That's the cold air clashing with the warmer air to the southeast. In other words, very active pattern likely to continue through the end of the month and possibly more active last week of the month
Love snow, can't stand ice. The pattern which produces an icy mess we identified a little more than a week ago and here it is.
When dealing with arctic air, remember our rules? It's stronger than models predict and arrives faster than models predict. This happens 99 out of 100 times. Could this be the 1 it doesn't? Maybe.
There are a few things going on which make this a very complex situation. The cold air will slowly move into the area, especially on a northeast wind around the Ozarks. At the same, time, there is a warm, moist flow loaded with moisture coming from the southwest. With that on top of arctic air means trouble and all forms of precipitation becomes likely across the state. What you receive will all depend on the depth of the cold air and of course, surface temperature.
Watch!
While there will be some wintry weather Monday across northern Arkansas. Let's watch Tuesday, especially the afternoon. The GFS interpretation has freezing rain in pink, sleet in orange, and snow in blue. Again, it's a model and NOT a forecast. the depth of the cold air determines which precip type you get.
GFS temperatures. NOT much margin for error, BUT it is at or below freezing for much of northern Arkansas. The danger here is that the air is colder further south as the NAM depicts.
The NAM typically does a better job handling arctic air. It's interpretation for late Tuesday. Again, NOT not a forecast. It's a model
NAM temperatures
As I said, temperature means EVERYTHING when it comes to ice. You can have freezing rain at 32° and the impacts change greatly if it's only a few degrees colder.
Impacts from the NWS. Notice eastern AR will have greater impacts. I suspect this minor to moderate impacts will expand in future outlooks.
This of course can still change. If there's an adjustment, it's further south. But we'll see.
The chance for significant snow is increasing late Tuesday into early Wednesday. If you've been following on the blog or social, the last week of this month is what we have been highlighting for winter to return. If you think this is the last chance this season, I disagree. More threats for wintry weather in the long range, but let's look at what is directly in front of us now.
The track of the low is classic for winter weather in Arkansas. However, a track further south increases the chance and a track further north pushes the snow into the far corner of NW AR.
Temperatures will be marginal so this snow will be like mashed potatoes. It will be heavy, wet snow
The greatest chance will be the northwest 1/2 of the state, but can change depending on track
I expect a winter storm warning for northern Arkansas
Since temperatures will hover around freezing, once the snow ends, melting will be fast, especially on the roads.
Central Arkansas is a close call for any snow amounts, but flakes should fly.
Could this be a situation where snow adds up in the higher elevations of west Little Rock and western Pulaski county with little to no snow towards downtown and the airport? Possibly.
Let's go to the model guidance.
The chance for at least 1'' of snow is VERY high for much of the northwest 1/2 of Arkansas.
The chance for at least 3'' of snow is very high for the higher elevations of the Ozarks and Ouchita's. Notice the chance lower in the Arkansas River Valley. The chance is still there, but lower compared to the higher elevations.
The chance for at least 6'' of snow is elevated for the northern and western mountains. Moisture with this system is not in question!
Model amounts, NOT a forecast. The "+" could end up being 6'' or a little more on the highest peaks ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
Our preliminary snow outlook. If this is wrong, blame James. He made it. LOL. Just kidding James, no, but seriously.
Meteorologist James Bryant has a fantastic Twitter threat about the entire event.