It's not a stretch to say more people will be in Arkansas at this moment in time compared to any moment in our state's history. The total solar eclipse will bring tourists from around the world to the Natural State. Now, all we need is for the weather to cooperate.
The path of totality goes directly over central, northern, and western Arkansas.
While a specific forecast is absolutely impossible to predict until we're within a few days, we can look at potential patterns and what they bring to the region on a seasonal basis.
We're going into an El Nino right now. How long it lasts is very difficult to say, but we can look at expert outlooks and use them against the normal values for this time of the year.
First of all, April is the wettest month of the entire year according to the 30 year average 1991-2020.
The Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook for March, April, and May 2024 (meteorological spring) does indicate precipitation anomalies will be positive for much of the state, especially eastern Arkansas. That just means a better than average chance for above normal rainfall. However, that does NOT mean it will rain or be cloudy on April 8th, 2024. Will this be evenly distributed between the 3 month or be focused on one or two specific months? It's just impossible to say at this point.
Updated: Apr 19
The official track of the Little Rock tornado using Google Earth has been asked for quite a bit. From my understanding, it's still a work in progress as more information is entered into the database. The National Weather Service has done an incredible job thoroughly examining the track.
It's a KML file. Click on the image below and it should download a file to your computer. You will probably need a laptop or desktop to see this, but I could be wrong. It should open in Google Earth and if you don't, it's a free download. It's recommended you use a desktop or laptop to view.
Hope this helps and hope it works for you. I'll have more about the EF3 Little Rock tornado down the road here on the Arkansas Weather Blog
zoom in to view the track.
We have already had 12 tornadoes and possibly another yet to be confirmed. Active? Yes, to say the very least.
The much talked about cold air is here this week. The threat for frost and freezing conditions are on the table early this week and AGAIN this upcoming weekend.
And the Euro, not a forecast, shows the threat for another 2 or 3 nights starting next weekend.
No doubt we are getting a pause in the severe weather/heavy rain threat. However, I would expect that to increase later this month and especially April into May as the active pattern continues AND Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperatures.
The water temperatures are well above average and this is very concerning. As the active severe weather pattern resumes, moisture return will not be an issue. This moisture transport will help any storm system produce very heavy rainfall and severe weather this spring. We have already seen this play out in January and February.